Cape Verde’s start to the 2026 World Cup has been one of the stories of the tournament so far. Two matches in, the Blue Sharks are unbeaten, they have already taken points off Spain and Uruguay, and they head into their final group game still very much in the picture for qualification. For a nation making its World Cup debut, that is already remarkable. For a country of barely over half a million people, it feels even bigger.

So, could anyone really have seen this coming?

The honest answer is yes and no.

The Part Nobody Saw Coming

Almost nobody predicted this exact script. A draw with Spain in a first-ever World Cup match would have sounded wildly optimistic before the tournament. Backing that up by coming from behind to draw with Uruguay would have felt even more unlikely. Those are not just respectable results. They are results against two established football powers, one of them a recent European champion and the other a nation with deep World Cup pedigree.

That is why Cape Verde’s performance has landed with such force. It is not simply that they have avoided defeat. It is the manner of it. Against Spain, they were organised, calm and emotionally mature. Against Uruguay, they showed another side of themselves, first taking the lead, then recovering from adversity after going behind. That combination of discipline and belief is what has made their start so impressive.

In truth, the broader football public did not see this particular opening coming. A World Cup debutant from a small island nation in a group with Spain, Uruguay and Saudi Arabia was expected to scrap for a point at best. Two draws from the opening two games was beyond what most neutral observers would have forecast.

The Clues Were There

And yet, to say this came entirely from nowhere would be unfair to the work Cape Verde have done over the last few years.

This team did not stumble into the tournament. They qualified by topping their African qualifying group ahead of Cameroon, which immediately told anyone paying attention that this was not a novelty act. That campaign was built on defensive strength, consistency and a tactical identity that translated well to tournament football. Cape Verde were not qualifying through chaos or luck. They were winning with structure.

That matters because World Cups often reward teams who know exactly what they are. Cape Verde do. Under Bubista, they have been compact, intensely committed off the ball and smart in transition. They do not need long periods of possession to stay in games. They do not panic when they are pinned back. They trust their shape, they defend their box aggressively and they wait for moments to strike.

That sort of profile makes them awkward opponents, especially in group-stage football, where favourites can become frustrated and matches can turn tense very quickly.

Tournament Football Loves Teams Like This

Cape Verde’s rise also makes sense when you think about how international football works. The gap between elite nations and well-drilled outsiders is often smaller than it looks on paper, especially over 90 minutes.

Club football tends to expose weaker squads over time because quality and depth usually win out. International tournaments are different. Cohesion, commitment, game plans and emotional control can narrow the distance fast. Cape Verde have all four.

They also have experience in key places. Vozinha, at 40, has become one of the faces of the tournament because he embodies their story perfectly: veteran, resilient, and utterly unfazed by the scale of the occasion. Ryan Mendes gives them leadership and calm. Kevin Pina has provided quality in midfield and delivered a historic first World Cup goal. Helio Varela’s equaliser against Uruguay underlined that this squad is not just trying to survive; it believes it belongs.

That belief is often the final ingredient in surprise runs. Once a supposed underdog proves to itself that it can compete, the psychology changes. Cape Verde no longer look like tourists at this World Cup. They look like a team enjoying the freedom of having nothing to lose and the confidence of knowing they can hurt anyone.

Why Spain and Uruguay Could Not Simply Brush Them Aside

The Spain result was the football world’s warning shot. Cape Verde frustrated, blocked, competed and rode pressure without losing their shape. Spain had the bigger names and the ball, but Cape Verde had clarity. They knew exactly which spaces to protect and which risks were worth taking.

The Uruguay game then showed that the Spain draw was not a one-off built purely on defending deep. Cape Verde scored twice, handled momentum swings and responded after Uruguay’s late first-half turnaround. That is a very different kind of test, and they passed it too.

This is what makes their performances especially convincing. Some underdog stories are built on one heroic rearguard action. Cape Verde have now shown two versions of themselves: the disciplined spoiler and the resilient competitor. That gives the story more substance.

So, Could Anyone Have Seen It Coming?

If the question means, “Did many people predict Cape Verde would take two points from Spain and Uruguay?” then no, not really. That would have been a fringe prediction even among informed observers.

But if the question means, “Were there signs that Cape Verde might be far more competitive than casual fans expected?” then absolutely. The qualification campaign, the defensive numbers, the tactical identity, the experience in the squad and the steady upward trajectory of the national team all suggested they would not be easy opponents.

In that sense, the surprise is less that Cape Verde are good enough to compete, and more that so many people underestimated what modern international football allows well-coached outsiders to do.

The Big Picture Now

Cape Verde’s final group match against Saudi Arabia now carries enormous weight. Two draws have put them in a genuine position to dream about the knockout stage. Even if the fairytale stopped there, they would already have left a mark on this World Cup. They have played with intelligence, courage and emotional control, and they have done so against opponents carrying far greater individual pedigree.

So yes, a few close watchers might say they saw some version of this coming. But the scale of the impact, the composure of the performances and the speed with which Cape Verde have become one of the tournament’s most compelling stories? That part has still caught almost everyone by surprise.